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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-01-01T22:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16301/-1
CME Note: This CME precedes the 2021-01-02T11:24Z CME. This CME is associated with a filament eruption observed south of the Earth-facing disk in SDO AIA 193/304 (centered near S30W05 just below a small coronal hole structure) starting as early as 2021-01-01T19:00Z. The start time of this CME is chosen based on the visibility of a faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2 seen to emerge starting at 2021-01-01T22:00Z. The effects of this CME are likely combined with the 2021-01-02T11:24Z CME. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE: From Lan Jian: This event should be a HSS with CME embedded. There seems to be a sector boundary at about Jan. 5 12UT. The smooth magnetic field rotations concur with the second B pile-up and second Vp increase. I dont see a shock associated with the event. The flux rope part is from about 0 to 6 UT on Jan. 6. It is possible Earth only encountered the CME at the flank.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-01-06T00:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-01-05T20:07Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 65.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.5 - 4.25
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -35108.93 hour(s)
Difference: 3.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z

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